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Project: T172700 #0430
 

Hydropower operators are busy with day-to-day operations. They need to an actionable tool that guides them to appropriate statistical methods to process the vast amounts of data related to inflow forecasts and runoff determination. CEATI previously published two reports (CEATI Report No. T132700-0425 Review of Data Screening Methods for Discharge/Inflow Time Series and CEATI Report No. T152700-0426 Applied Statistical Analysis Techniques for Hydro Generation and Runoff) that provide operators with an overview of the available statistical methods. To make the information contained in both these reports more accessible, a concise roadmap with ample examples was developed that allows operators to quickly select and implement statistical methods to improve the efficiency of their operations.

The roadmap has been developed in CompendiumLD, a freely available software package developed to create logical process flow charts. Flow charts were developed for each of the techniques and methods described in the two reports and the necessary information provided to operators at each decision point in the flow chart without needing to consult the previous reports.

The examples that were included in these reports and their datasets are included in the roadmap. Additional examples have been included to give the operator a starting point for implementing a method and to foster further understanding of the mechanics of the method. Examples are provided in MS Excel, Python, and R in such a way that only minimal knowledge of these software products is required to gain a greater understanding of the statistical methods at hand.

Although the Statistical Roadmap was developed in CompendiumLD, the final Roadmap product is HTML based and can be opened and used on any modern computer without a need for installing additional software. The CompendiumLD project can be exported as Web Maps, and a provided Python script can then be used to create a more user-friendly Web Page out of these Maps. The script is highly configurable, allowing for ongoing updates, additions, and modifications to the CompendiumLD project, followed by a quick deployment as a Web Page.

Keywords:

Hydropower, Roadmap, Statistical methods, Optimization, Uncertainty, Climate change, Ensembles, Diagnostics, Regression, Simulation design, Stochastic modeling