Provide a verification framework that can be implemented on hydrologic parameters at a variety of levels of sophistication. This framework can accommodate long-term ad hoc verification as well as near-real-time verification that can assist in operational timeframes. As mentioned previously, several organizations have been looking into the verification of hydrologic forecasts with a focus on flooding and peak verification. This project should build on those starting points and tailor the resulting deliverables with the hydropower energy industry in mind.
Review currently available verification techniques and metrics via a literature review and discussion with subject experts, focusing on their strengths and weaknesses. Assess whichmetrics are most appropriate for the various components of the hydrologic cycle; temporal considerations such as lead time should also be addressed. Discuss and provide techniquesfor hydro forecasters to investigate and understand if and how forecast errors accumulate through the forecast process.
Discuss and provide a summary of the differences in metrics for probabilistic (ensemble) vs. deterministic forecast verification.
Using information gathered above; develop a Roadmap for implementation of verification techniques. This roadmap is the key component of this technical review. We would expect that over 60% of this TR effort would be spent in the development of the Roadmap. Therewill be a wide range of understanding of verification techniques in the HOPIG members. This Roadmap must provide step-by-step instructions in an actionable format that can be used by members who have different levels of understanding of the process.
Discuss best practices regarding data archiving and documentation for forecast verification and provide examples of displays that can be used to quickly understand the results of forecast verification.
Provide a list of capabilities, pros and cons for commercially available verification software.