Project: T202700 #0434

Many CEATI HOPIG members have observed the growing capability of both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High Performance Computing (HPC) inflow forecast methods.  Proponents of these methods have done in-house benchmarking, but such work is viewed as not-actionable by most HOPIG members.  This project will perform a yearlong competition between five forecast methods, with a live website for members to view the verification results on a daily basis.

The four forecasts will be:

  • Hydro Operator’s forecast model for their basins
  • Governmental operational forecast model for each basin
  • Upstream Tech AI model for each basin
  • Sapere Consulting AI model for each basin
  • U.S. National Water Model for each basin


Forecast Competition Website


Please find some relevant materials related to the forecast competition  using the following link: Forecast Rodeo Verification Locations & Details

Important documents at this location include:

  1. Forecast Rodeo Locations and Details with Custom Parameters.xlsx
    • This document lists the locations, forecast sources, observed data source, statistic parameters etc.
    • Sponsors: Please continue to add you custom statistics parameters in the three columns: Evaluation Windows {Up to 6 windows}, Aggregation Periods {Up to 4 periods}, Flow Categories {Up to 2 categories}
    • We will likely add columns with addition parameters (such as forecast cutoff times) later
  2. Forecast Rodeo Statistics Selection and Computation_v3-nv.docx
    • This lists statistics parameters and other overall competition rules
    • We will add additional rules and how we address edge cases (such as forecasts that are submitted too late)