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Project: T164700 #50/133
 

The primary objectives of this project were to identify best practices in reliability forecasting via research and surveying, and through the survey to identify current-state reliability practices and develop a tool that will help utilities derive their forecasts. The tool developed as part of this initiative was intended to use best practices in reliability forecasting to provide both utilities and regulators with an accurate understanding of system performance.

Industry research in the form of a literature review was conducted to define current best practices and inform the content of the survey. This survey was distributed to utilities and is summarized within the report. The literature review and survey were explored to determine best practices and also to define potential inputs to the model such that the model would be usable for most utilities. The model provides a ten-year forecast of reliability for ten common outage cause codes using SAIDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI metrics.

Keywords:

Distribution System Reliability, Reliability Forecasting, Project Justification, Hazard Rates, Outage Cause Codes, Excel Model, Long Term Investment Planning, Short Term Investment Planning